Wisconsin Election Recap
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won a narrow victory in Tuesday's Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor, and election observers point in part to the large number of previously undecided voters.
In the Marquette Law School Poll’s final survey of Wisconsin voters, July 22-27, Francesca Hong received 38%. Her unofficial vote total in the August 11 primary election is 39.3%. In that most recent poll, 34% had said they were undecided.
"The remarkable difference between poll and outcome was that the poll had David Crowley at 7% and he won with 39.8%," Marquette University Law School poll leader Charles Franklin said Thursday in a post-election analysis. "Mandela Barnes, who dropped out three days after the poll was completed, had 16% in the final survey. One clear thing is that the vast majority of late-deciding voters went to Crowley and very few went to Hong."
He said the race was complicated by three candidates dropping out, Crowley reentering in the final month and Gov. Tony Evers' late endorsement of Crowley.
In other election news, state Rep. Sylvia Velez-Ortiz (D-Milwaukee), was the lone incumbent state legislator who lost her primary on Tuesday. This is important as Rep. Velez-Ortiz and the Assembly Democratic Caucus were at odds with each other. This outcome is viewed as further solidifying the caucus in the next session.
The question many in the state political sphere is asking: what impact will the Crowley (D) v Tiffany (R) Gubernatorial race have down ticket - on the State Senate and State Assembly elections? Republicans currently have a 2-seat majority in the State Senate (18-15) and a 5-seat majority in the State Assembly (54-45). Already narrow margins. Nationally various organizations predict Wisconsin’s Gubernatorial, State Senate and Assembly majorities as a toss-up.
State Senate: Republicans currently have a 2-seat majority in the State Senate (18-15). 17 of the 33 Senate districts are up for re-election this year, but majority control will likely come down to 4 highly competitive senate districts - 1 Democrat and 3 Republican. Further, 2 of the 3 highly competitive Republican held districts are open, meaning there is no incumbent running - which should provide Democrats with an advantage in those districts.
SD-05 51.5% DEM OPEN (currently held by GOP)
SD-17 53% DEM Sen. Marklein (R) Incumbent
SD-21 50.5% DEM OPEN (currently held by GOP)
SD 31 53% DEM Sen. Smith (D) Incumbent
State Assembly: Republicans currently have a 5-seat majority in the State Assembly (54-45). All 99 Assembly districts are up for re-election the year, but majority control will likely come down to 13 competitive districts (8 GOP \ 5 DEM). Further, 2 seats are open (no incumbent) that are currently held by Republicans, but lean Democrat. Whether Republican or Democrat - majority control will likely be narrow.
AD-30 52% GOP Rep. Zimmerman (R) Incumbent
AD-92 51% GOP Rep. Moses (R) Incumbent
AD-85 51% GOP Rep. Snyder (R) Incumbent
AD-94 50% Rep. Doyle (D) Incumbent
AD-88 50% Rep. Franklin (R) Incumbent
AD-89 52% DEM Rep. Spaude (D) Incumbent
AD-61 52% DEM Rep. Donovan (R) Incumbent
AD-26 52% DEM Rep. Sheehan (D) Incumbent
AD-53 53% DEM OPEN (currently held by GOP)
AD-21 53% DEM OPEN (currently held by GOP)
AD-91 54% DEM Rep. Emerson (D) Incumbent
AD-95 54% DEM Rep. Billings (D) Incumbent
AD-51 55% DEM Rep. Novak (R) Incumbent